This study explores the drivers (explanatory factors) and spatial patterns of suburban development in Vinnytsia, a second-tier Ukrainian city, within the broader context of post-socialist urban transformation. The objective of the paper is to identify the drivers of suburban development of Vinnytsia as a second-tier Ukrainian city at the level of individual settlements and to uncover the general spatial patterns of its suburban area. Drawing on spatial features of suburbanisation including population change, housing modernisation, real estate market activity, and construction permits, the research reveals a distinct centre–periphery structure of the suburban area, asymmetrically distributed along the southwest-northeast axis. The suburban area comprises three quasi-concentric zones, each exhibiting varying levels and forms of suburban development. The first zone, directly adjacent to the city, is dominated by classical western-type suburbanisation, involving the influx of affluent residents and the emergence of low-rise and multi-storey housing. The second zone, stretching 15–20 km from the city centre, is characterised by housing modernisation rather than new construction, with commercial activity concentrated near major highways. The third zone, up to 30 km away, shows only partial transformation, mainly through the renovation of existing homes, which may be equally referred to both suburban and peri-urban development. Logistic regression confirms proximity to the central city as the most influential factor across all indicators, while landscape features and access to highways also contribute significantly. The research identifies asymmetries rooted in both natural landscape preferences and the spatial configuration of the city itself. Notably, administrative reforms have failed to align governance boundaries with functional suburban integration. The study concludes that suburbanisation in Vinnytsia reflects hybrid dynamics of post-socialist development, merging unregulated urban expansion with spontaneous and policy-driven modernisation. The findings offer insights for spatial planning in second-tier cities, advocating for more integrated approaches to suburban and peri-urban governance.

Factors, post-socialist city, suburbanisation, Vinnytsia